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North Dakota (US-ND)

Market Type: Deregulated (Retail Choice)
SSS Relevance: ⭐⭐⭐ High
Grid Carbon Intensity: ~646 gCO₂/kWh

SSS Factors: significant nuclear capacity, hydroelectric resources, no mandatory RPS, regulated market structure

1. Overview​

North Dakota is a major energy exporter, generating more than twice the electricity it consumes for in-state use. As of early 2026, the state maintains some of the lowest average retail electricity rates in the U.S. at approximately 8.12¢/kWh 1.

The electricity market is regulated, with generation feeding into regional transmission organizations (RTOs), primarily MISO and SPP. Key utilities include investor-owned entities like Xcel Energy and not-for-profit cooperatives such as Basin Electric Power Cooperative and Minnkota Power Cooperative 1.

The state’s generation mix is historically dominated by coal, but renewable shares have grown rapidly. As of 2026, the energy mix consists of:

  • Coal (54%): Remains the primary baseload source, supported by the world's second-largest lignite reserves 1.
  • Wind (35-40%): North Dakota ranks first in the U.S. for potential wind capacity, with wind serving as the second-largest source of electricity 1.
  • Natural Gas (~5%): Used primarily for peaker plants.
  • Hydropower (~5%): Supplied largely by the Garrison Dam 1.

Renewable energy accounts for approximately 39.5% of total electricity generation as of 2026, a significant increase from 14% a decade prior 2. Solar power remains a minimal contributor, representing less than 1% of generation 1.

The carbon intensity of the North Dakota grid is approximately 465 gCO2eq/kWh as of the 2024/2025 period, driven by the reliance on fossil fuels which account for about 58% of generation 3. The state has set a goal to become carbon neutral by 2030, largely through advancements in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology 3. ⚠️ Note: This neutrality goal relies heavily on the development of CCS, which faces technical and economic scalability challenges.

Emerging trends include rising industrial demand from data centers and oil projects, as well as significant investment in transmission infrastructure to expand export capacity to neighboring states. However, utilities report supply chain constraints, with wait times for critical infrastructure like transformers reaching up to two years 1.

2. Market Structure​

North Dakota maintains a fully regulated electricity market characterized by a vertically integrated model. There is no retail choice for residential or commercial customers; consumers must purchase power from the utility designated to their geographic location 4. The North Dakota Public Service Commission (PSC) regulates rates and oversees utility operations to ensure fairness 4.

The utility landscape is comprised of three primary ownership models:

  • Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs): For-profit corporations regulated by the PSC.
  • Municipal Utilities: City-owned systems, including active electric systems in cities such as Cavalry, Valley City, and others. The North Dakota Municipal Power Agency represents six member utilities 5.
  • Electric Cooperatives: Not-for-profit, member-owned entities. The state includes 19 distribution cooperatives and 7 Generation & Transmission (G&T) cooperatives 6.

Wholesale market operations and grid reliability are managed by two Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) that serve the state:

  • Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO): Serves a large portion of the state.
  • Southwest Power Pool (SPP): Manages grid operations for parts of North Dakota 7.

Because North Dakota is a net exporter of electricity, wholesale market prices within these RTO footprints are critical for state generators 8. Recent policy focus has centered on resource adequacy and the transition of generation assets, such as coal-fired plant retirements, rather than market deregulation 4.

3. Clean Energy Policy​

North Dakota does not have a mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) or clean energy mandate. Instead, the state relies on voluntary goals and market-driven incentives, emphasizing an "all-of-the-above" energy strategy that supports fossil fuel industries alongside renewable growth 910.

Renewable Goals and Standards The state previously established a non-binding, voluntary objective for utilities to obtain 10% of retail electricity from renewable or recycled energy by 2015. This goal was met and subsequently repealed in 2025. While compliance was voluntary, the policy required that the use of renewable energy be evaluated for cost-effectiveness compared to other alternatives 1110.

Emissions and Climate Strategy North Dakota has established a goal to become carbon neutral by 2030. The state's strategy prioritizes the maintenance of coal and oil industries through the use of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) rather than a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. A central component of this strategy is Project Tundra, which aims to convert the Milton R. Young coal plant into one of the world's largest carbon storage facilities by 2029 9.

Recent initiatives include:

  • Priority Climate Action Plan (PCAP): Released in early 2024, this plan focuses on immediate, "easy-to-implement" projects such as LED streetlights and building weatherization while preparing for larger-scale industrial planning 9.
  • Clean Sustainable Energy Authority (CSEA): Created in 2021, the CSEA provides grants and low-interest loans for "low-emission technologies," including biofuels, hydrogen, and natural gas 11.

Policy Opposition and Legal Disputes The EmPower ND Commission explicitly opposes state energy mandates, aiming instead to double energy production from all sources by 2025 without creating barriers to investment 8. The state has actively challenged neighboring clean energy regulations, filing federal complaints against Minnesota's Zero-Carbon Mandate. North Dakota argues that requiring 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040 violates the Dormant Commerce Clause by regulating interstate commerce and forcing North Dakota residents to subsidize Minnesota's policies 912.

4. Utility Landscape​

North Dakota's electricity market is served by a mix of investor-owned utilities (IOUs), rural electric cooperatives (RECs), and municipal utilities. The state is home to a small number of IOUs, which are regulated by the North Dakota Public Service Commission (PSC), alongside a larger network of non-regulated cooperatives and public utilities 13.

Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs) The state's IOUs serve specific geographic regions and provide both electric and gas services. Key providers include:

  • Montana-Dakota Utilities (MDU): A subsidiary of MDU Resources Group serving the largest geographic area of the IOUs. It provides electricity and natural gas to communities across the state 13.
  • Xcel Energy (Northern States Power): Operates primarily in the eastern part of the state, serving major cities such as Fargo, Grand Forks, and Minot with approximately 97,000 customers 13.
  • Otter Tail Power Company: Based in Minnesota, this utility focuses on electric service for communities in central and eastern North Dakota 13.

Cooperatives and Municipal Utilities The landscape includes approximately 18 to 19 rural electric cooperatives (RECs) and 12 municipal utilities 6.

  • Generation & Transmission (G&T) Cooperatives: The state's generation is heavily influenced by large G&Ts such as Basin Electric Power Cooperative, headquartered in Bismarck, and Minnkota Power Cooperative, headquartered in Grand Forks. Basin Electric is currently developing the 1,490 MW natural gas Bison Generation Station, which is slated to become the state's largest power plant upon completion around 2030 14.
  • Regulation: Unlike IOUs, the rates of RECs and municipal utilities are not regulated by the PSC. RECs are self-regulated by boards elected by their members, while municipal utilities are operated by city governments 13.
  • Municipal Agencies: Many municipal utilities participate in joint action agencies, such as the Northern Municipal Power Agency (NMPA), to purchase power 6.

Generation Mix In 2024, coal-fired power provided 54% of the state's electricity generation, followed by wind energy at 35% 7. The state's sole hydroelectric facility is the Garrison Dam, with a capacity of roughly 583 MW 7.

5. SSS-Eligible Resources​

No specific SSS-eligible resources identified. See section notes.

6. EAC/REC Registry Infrastructure​

North Dakota does not operate a state-specific Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) registry. Instead, the state relies on regional and national tracking systems to manage the issuance, transfer, and retirement of Energy Attribute Certificates (EACs) 15.

Primary Tracking System​

The Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System (M-RETS) serves as the primary registry for North Dakota. It is used by the majority of utilities and generators in the state to issue unique digital certificates for every megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable energy produced 1615. M-RETS validates environmental attributes to prevent double-counting and covers a multi-state region including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South Dakota 17.

Regulatory Framework​

The North Dakota Public Service Commission (PSC) oversees the tracking of renewable energy certificates. Under North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 69-09-08, designated representatives must register renewable generation units with a program administrator (such as M-RETS) 18. Additionally, generation applied to the state's Renewable Energy and Recycled Energy Objective must be independently verified through a third-party tracking system selected by the PSC 18.

Alternative Registries and Data​

While M-RETS is the standard, generators in North Dakota may also utilize the North American Renewables Registry (NAR), a flexible national registry 15. The tracking systems record specific attributes for each certificate, including:

  • Location: The specific facility where energy was generated.
  • Technology Type: The renewable source (e.g., wind, solar, biomass).
  • Vintage: The month and year of production.
  • Emissions Profile: The carbon intensity associated with the resource 18.

Inter-Registry Transfers​

Transfers between systems are possible to support voluntary markets and compliance programs. For example, RECs can move between M-RETS and WREGIS (Western Renewable Energy Generation Information System) via "Reserve" accounts to satisfy obligations in different regions 16.

7. Grid Emissions​

Scope 2 Reporting​

  • SB 253 requires Scope 2 reporting for companies >$1B revenue

Source: EPA eGRID, EIA, state regulatory filings

References​

Sources & Last Updated​

Research Date: 2026-03-10
Data Sources: EIA, EPA eGRID, state regulatory filings, SerpAPI research aggregation

This page was generated using automated research and may contain inaccuracies. Verify critical data with primary sources.

Footnotes​

  1. North Dakota State Government (.gov) ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9

  2. America’s Health Rankings ↩

  3. North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality (.gov) ↩ ↩2

  4. Energy & Environmental Research Center ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  5. North Dakota Legislative Branch (.gov) ↩

  6. Energy Star (.gov) ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  7. Wikipedia ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  8. North Dakota Legislative (.gov) ↩ ↩2

  9. North Dakota Monitor ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  10. NRDC ↩ ↩2

  11. Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency ↩

  12. American Experiment ↩

  13. North Dakota Public Service Commission (.gov) ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  14. Basin Electric Power Cooperative ↩

  15. resource-solutions.org ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  16. CleanCounts ↩ ↩2

  17. Carbon Solutions Group ↩

  18. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (.gov) ↩ ↩2 ↩3